Q2 2022 Miami Condo Market Summary: Luxury Market Takes Summer Break, Retains Seller Stronghold

Q2 2022 Miami Condo Market Summary: Luxury Market Takes Summer Break, Retains Seller Stronghold

Jul 22, 2022 July 22, 2022

Miami’s luxury condo market has been in overdrive since Q3 2020, owing to strong buyer demand nationally and internationally. After posting booming sales for seven quarters in a row, we’ve been expecting the market to take a summer break and catch its breath - which is what the second quarter data for 2022 are showing. While overall sales marginally dropped, there were still 700+ sales (higher than any single quarter recorded from 2015 to 2020), the market is still posting increased prices per square foot, low inventory, and the lowest-to-date days to market. 

The take-away? Sellers are still firmly in control of the luxury condo market in Miami. Here are some key stats:


Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Closed Sales: 719

  • Year-over-Year Change in Closed Sales: -7.3% (719 vs 776 sales in Q2 2021)
  • Quarter-over-quarter Change in Closed Sales: -1.4% (719 vs 729 sales in Q1 2022)

Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market -  Median Sales Price: $1.64M

  • Change in Median Sales Price: -9.4% (Q2 2022 vs Q2 2021) 

Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Inventory: 7 months


Q2 2022 Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary


 

Number of  Sales

% change  in Sales

Median  Sale Price

% change  in Median  Sale Price

Median  SP/SqFt

% change  in Median  Sp/SqFt

Median  Days On Market

Q2-2022

719

-7.3%

$1,635,000

-9.4%

$931

+3.8%

57

Q2-2021

776

$1,805,000

$897

96


As real estate experts, we’ll be keeping a close watch on the next two quarters to uncover whether this quarter’s break in momentum was a momentary seasonal pause or the sign of a correction. Until then, we expect buyer demand to remain strong, but reflect some of the national trends we are seeing that are influencing buyer behavior. However, from our local insight and expertise, we are not seeing a drop in buyer interest from high-net-worth individuals, families, work-from-home professionals, and businesses as they continue to migrate to Miami’s tropical, tax-friendly landscape.

Read on for a closer look into a neighborhood breakdown of our quarterly findings for Q2 2022.

For the purpose of this Miami luxury condo market report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above. The neighborhoods included in this market summary include Downtown Miami, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District, Brickell, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, Fisher Island, Surfside and Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach.


 Q2 2022 - Miami Luxury Condo Market Sales 



Overall sales drop only 7.3% from record-high sales in Q2 2021 

With sales volumes charting new heights over each passing quarter, Miami’s luxury condo market has been on a growth spurt for the past seven quarters. So, when Q2-2022 closed with lower-than-record numbers, it came as no surprise. Considering sellers still received top-dollar for their luxury condos, as real estate experts, we’re not reading too deeply into this drop. 

Falling only 7.3% behind the record-high sales posted in Q2 last year, the luxury condo market still reported great numbers. Considering total sales volume stayed above 700 – higher than any single quarter recorded from 2015 to 2020 – the market kept its pace. Comparing quarter to quarter, sales stayed flat, declining a negligible 1.4% from 729 sales in Q1-22 to 719 in Q2-22 – indicating that the market is enjoying a strong summer.


Neighborhood Sales at a Glance
 

Neighborhood

Q2-2022

Q2-2021

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

224

162

+38.3%

Miami Beach**

413

544

-24.1%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

82

70

+17.1%

*Greater Downtown Miami includes Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach includes South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.


Looking into the neighborhood-based sales comparison (above), it’s easy to see that only the beach neighborhoods lost steam, while all mainland sub-markets reported high year-over-year growth. The Miami Beach neighborhoods (collectively) have been slowing down overall momentum for the past two quarters. This could likely be due to buyers opting for more affordable waterfront housing options or choosing to live on Mainland Miami, closer to their places of work.

Disrupting the general trend seen over the past few quarters, Downtown Miami overtook Brickell & Edgewater in terms of popularity – leading market growth in Q2 2022. The sub-market reported a 64% increase in year-over-year sales, with volumes increasing from 22 in Q2 2021 to 36 in Q2 2022.

As sales carried their momentum from Q1 2022, the trendline tracing sales over the past 12 months shifted gears – going from a negative curve in Q1 to a positive in Q2. Except for Fisher Island, all Miami neighborhoods in our analysis reported a positive 12-month trendline – indicating that the market is likely to keep its pace going into the third quarter, even if it goes a little softer.


Q2 2022- Miami Luxury Condo Market Prices



As expected in a seller’s market, the price per square foot trekked higher this second quarter. All Miami neighborhoods under our review reported year-over-year price gains - except South Beach, where prices stayed flat.

Luxury condos in the combined neighborhood of Surfside and Bal Harbour reported maximum gains for sellers, closing Q2 2022 with the highest percentage increase in their year-over-year Price per Square Foot. Prices in this sub-market increased from $1,230 in Q2 2021 to $1,724 in Q2 2022, reporting a 40% gain. 

Fisher Island continued being the most expensive market for luxury condos with a median price of $1,782 per square foot, while Coconut Grove & Coral Gables remained the most affordable neighborhood with a median price of $725 per square foot.


Price per Square Foot at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q2-2022

Q2-2021

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

$832

$724

+15%

Miami Beach**

$1,117

$1,036

+7.8%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

$725

$694

+4.5%

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.


Q2 2022- Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market 



Following heightened buyer demand, the Days on Market for luxury condos dropped expectedly. At 57 days, luxury condos in Miami sold 1.7 times faster than a year ago (96 days in Q2-21).

All Miami neighborhoods under analysis posted a decrease in the number of days that luxury condos spent on the market before they were sold. Taking only 17 days to sell, the Coconut Grove & Coral Gables grouping turned out to be the fastest-selling market of this quarter.

On the other hand, Downtown Miami and the combined neighborhood of Surfside and Bal Harbour deviated from the trend, reporting an increase in their days on market data, which we will follow up on in our detailed Q2 2022 luxury condo market reports for Greater Downtown and Miami Beach.


Q2 2022 - Miami Luxury Condo Market Inventory 



Overall Inventory drops again to just 7 months

With sales staying strong and fewer deliveries of newly-built housing, luxury condo inventory understandably continued to remain very tight. Down to 7 months from 9 months last June, buyers remained hard-pressed for choices, while sellers enjoyed leading negotiations and keeping prices in their favor. 

Of all the neighborhoods under review, Fisher Island again reported the lowest months of inventory (4 months), with South Beach, Surfside and Bal Harbour plus the Coconut Grove and Coral Gables groupings following with only 5 months. A balanced market has between 9 and 12 months of inventory. So Miami is still in a very strong seller’s market. 


Q2 2002 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Inventory at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q2-2022

Q2-2021

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

8

14

-42.9%

Miami Beach**

6

8

-25%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

5

7

-28.6% 

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.


Q2 2002 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Summary



We expect Miami’s luxury condos to continue enjoying heightened demand from out-of-towners as well as international buyers. This coupled with the newly announced condo product taking at least 2-3 years to build, we expect the market to remain seller-friendly for the next few cycles, at least.

Even as we expect Miami’s luxury condo market to maintain a certain growth threshold, we will be keeping a close watch on how sales perform over the next two quarters to assess whether the market is headed towards a correction or not, and how, if any the increase in interest rates affect our unique market. As mentioned, we expect summer months to be a bit slower than the previous couple of years due to people going back to their normal vacation and life patterns post-pandemic.  

Until then, we advise buyers to keep their offers strong (preferably over asking price) to secure the luxury condo of their choice. On the other hand, investors looking to turn a profit can list their condos with utmost confidence.

To stay tuned for our exclusive, in-depth analysis of the Q2 2022 luxury condo market in Miami, subscribe to this blog as we will soon be rolling out separate reports for the overall Miami market, Miami Beach, Greater Downtown Miami, and Coconut Grove plus Coral Gables (collectively).

 

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If you have specific questions about this data, or want a market assessment of your property, please reach out to us directly or via our social media @blackbookproperties.

Photo by Avi Werde on Unsplash
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